Oil still hostage to political stakes Libyan conflict

15 Septembre 2020

Tripoli, Libya, September 15  (Infosplusgabon) - Oil, Libya's main source of revenue is still hostage to the political stakes underlying the long-running conflict in the country, to the extent that it has become a means of pressure and an instrument for consolidating position on the political chessboard.

This is detrimental to the state which is deprived of the financial means to provide services to citizens, the first victims of this blackmail.

In the grip of a blockade imposed for more than seven months by the forces of Khalifa Haftar, the oil sector has been hit hard by the crisis.

It has suffered a cumulative loss of up to  US$9.576 billion dollars in sales, according to the National Oil Company (NOC), which says that the closure of oilfields and ports has led to a drop in production of 800,000 barrels per day against more than 1.2 million bpd in normal times.

Using arguments related to the need for transparency and fairness in the redistribution of the oil windfall to justify the imposition of the blockade on the oil sites, Haftar hid behind the eastern tribes, attributing authorship of this protest movement to them.

Although this argument did not convince anyone, the Presidential Council and the NOC, with the help of the US and some countries in the region, have begun discussions to establish an arrangement to lift the blockade.

Hamadi al-Hassi, a Libyan university professor, recalled that "in July, an agreement was reached as part of these talks under international mediation at the end of which Haftar's forces announced the lifting of the blockade on oil installations, before they reversed their decision two days later, to specify that it was to allow the delivery of quantities of crude oil under contracts signed previously".

He said that "this reversal has caused great disappointment both among a large part of Libyans and in the international community, the who approve the resumption of NOC activities, in order to provide the state with the necessary resources for the provision of services to citizens, in terms of medicine and food, which are imported from abroad with money from crude oil sales".

Mr. al-Hassi said that "countries such as Italy, Spain, the United States, Great Britain and France have companies based in Libya that exploit oilfields, hence the need for these countries to continue the commercial activities of their companies necessary for their survival".

Libyan political activist Abdelhafidh al-Aref said "this deadlock in the oil sector is actually due to the interests of some countries that support Haftar militarily and financially, namely the United Arab Emirates and Russia". For him, "these two countries  are accused by the National Oil Company of having made Haftar reverse his decision to reopen the oil sector," because "they find in the absence of Libyan crude on the world market the satisfaction of their interests. "

He added that "the NOC had evidence of the existence of an order given by Abu Dhabi to its ally Haftar to continue the oil blockade", pointing out that "this situation has not discouraged countries intervening as mediators, in particular the United States, which has invested considerably in efforts to find a political solution in Libya by conducting contacts with all the belligerents".

Mr al-Aref said that "these efforts have resulted in the proclamation of a ceasefire separately by Fayez al-Sarraj and Aguila Saleh and a call for the resumption of oil production and the fair distribution of oil revenues".

On 21 August, the Presidents of the Presidential Council of the Government of National Accord, Fayez al-Sarraj, and of the East-based Parliament, Aguila Saleh, separately proclaimed an immediate ceasefire and an end to all hostile acts throughout Libya, calling for the resumption of oil activities and proposing the freezing of oil revenues in an account of the Libyan Oil Company until an arrangement is reached among Libyans on the mechanisms for its distribution among the Libyan regions and islands.

Muftah Saleh al-Haddad, a political activist, said that "this call for peace has been rejected by the Haftar camp which questioned the sincerity of the President of the Presidential Council, ignoring the position of the Speaker of Parliament who is his political arm and ally".

He added that "it took the worsening of the electricity crisis with the increase in the hours of load shedding in the eastern region of the country, due to the exhaustion of gas produced in the region's closed fields, used to feed the power plants, for Haftar to agree to reopen the oil sites", indicating that "this resumption has been temporary because, the head of the guards of the oil installations affiliated to Haftar said that it is a matter of emptying the tanks in order to avoid the deterioration of infrastructure and to alleviate the suffering of citizens deprived of electricity".

However, according to the US Embassy in Libya "the Libyan National Army (LNA) has transmitted to the US government General Haftar's personal commitment to authorise the complete reopening of the energy sector by 12 September at the latest".

In a statement on Saturday, the embassy said the commitment followed "an exchange of letters between Ambassador Norland and LNA Commander Haftar, as well as recent discussions with a wide range of Libyan leaders.

The ambassador stressed U.S. confidence in the NOC and support for a financial model that would provide a credible guarantee that oil and gas revenues would be managed transparently and safeguarded for the benefit of the Libyan people.

For Libyan political analyst Khaled Mustapha al-Saadaoui, "Haftar's clinging to the closure of oilfields and ports reflects, in reality, the signs of his political loss and the absence of any future prospects for him."

"The military setback suffered in the attack on Tripoli has made him lose all his prestige and credibility both among his local allies, among tribes and armed groups and abroad," Mr. al-Saadaoui said.

"Oil remains the only card he holds to prove his existence and try to make a place for himself on the Libyan political chessboard after losing political options and choices."

He said, however, that "his calculations will not be accurate since the international community, particularly the United States, are categorically opposed to the blockade  on oil sites and are working to lift it and resume activities of the Oil Company, even though they recognise the need for more rational and transparent management of oil in Libya".

According to him, "the United States is very upset about Haftar's alliance with Russia and the presence of Russian mercenaries and considers that Haftar is an obstacle to peace in Libya, hence their willingness to work with other Libyan personalities who want to resolve the crisis and make peace in the country".

It is noted that the American embassy considers that "the reopening of the energy sector will also allow progress to be made towards a much-needed overhaul of the security arrangements for the NOC facilities, including the complete withdrawal of foreign military personnel and equipment present at oil and gas sites without Libyan approval and a Libyan agreement to reform the guard at oil installations and break the predatory cycle of certain armed groups on  energy resources that belong to all Libyans".

Another sign of Haftar's loss of momentum is the rapprochement that is taking place between Egypt, his main ally, and the western region of Libya, with the current visit of Libyan personalities from the Parliament meeting in Tripoli, members of the High Council of State and leaders of the military operation affiliated to the Government of National Accord in Cairo to try to understand the position of the Libyan government.

A possible rapprochement between the Government of National Accord camps and Cairo will necessarily imply further marginalization of Haftar, who is not forgiven for his military failure in Tripoli, according to political analysts.

Moreover, the announcement by the Acting Special Representative of the UN Secretary General, Stephanie Williams, of the forthcoming Libyan Political Forum to resume the political process, in accordance with the recommendations of the Berlin Conference and the Skhirat political agreement, is a new impetus in the search for a political settlement in Libya.

To this should be added the consensus among members of the UN Security Council on the issue of the UN Envoy after the resignation last March of Ghassan Salamé, with the rallying of the United States proposal to split the function of Special Envoy in two with a Political Emissary seconded by a Head of the UN Support Mission. A decision to be adopted at the next session of the Security Council devoted to the extension of the duration of the United Nations Support Mission in Libya.

FIN/ INFOSPLUSGABON/MMO/GABON2020

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