Is Egyptian president al-Sissi looking for 'casus belli' with threat of direct military intervention in Libya?

22 Juin 2020

Tripoli, Libya, June 22 (Infosplusagbon) - Egyptian President Abdel Fattal al-Sissi's threat of direct military intervention in Libya, two weeks after announcing his Cairo Declaration "to end" the Libyan crisis, has been met with mixed reaction both internationally and locally.

Significantly, it has been rejected by the internationally-recognised Government of National Accord (GNA), one of the main actors in the conflict.

The Egyptian President's statements caused an outcry in various Libyan circles where he has been accused of seeking a "casus belli" (an act to justify war) to intervene in the country at a time when efforts to find a political solution are continuing unabated.

President al-Sissi's threat have been rejected by a broad section of Libyans mainly because of the reasons he put forward to justify this option.

In his threats, he said Sirte, in central Libya, is a "red line" not to be crossed by GNA's forces, stressing that the current "front line must remain unchanged" until inter-Libyan negotiations are started to find a solution and determine the future of Libya.

President al-Sissi also claimed that an Egyptian intervention now has international legitimacy, referring to the UN Charter, which allows for self-defence and legitimacy embodied only by the Libyan Parliament based in the East.

Giving reasons to justify a military intervention by Egypt, President al-Sissi cited the presence of "militias and terrorist groups" which he accused of seeking to seize power, hence the need to defend the national security of Egypt and the Arab world, whose borders are located in Sirte in central Libya and al-Jafra in the north-west.

Libyan political analyst Abdelhadi Slah al-Badawi stressed that beyond these reasons put forward without plausible justification by al-Sissi, it is the timing of the threat which raises questions.

This is because it is a time when contacts are increasing to find common grounds between Libyan belligerents to avoid an umpteenth frontal confrontation in a sensitive region where there are large oil deposits.

He recalled the recent refusal by the GNA of the Egypt's invitation to convene an emergency meeting of the Executive Council of the Arab League based in Cairo to tackle the crisis in Libya.

"(This meeting) is a question of making Arab countries take the floor against the support given by Turkey to the Government of National Accord which made it possible to thwart the offensive against Tripoli."

M. al-Badawi said that the Egyptian President is looking for a reason to intervene directly in Libya and support his ally, Khalifa Haftar, commander of the Libyan National Army (LNA), after his Cairo Declaration failed and Algeria, which is known for its neutrality towards the Libyan parties, took over with the relaunch of its mediation with visits of the President of the Presidential Fayez al-Sarraj and the Presidents of the High Council of State and Parliament in the east, Khaled al-Mechri and Aguila Saleh.

Riadh Abdessalam Achour, a Libyan university professor, recalled that the al-Sissi regime is an ally of Haftar and has supported him with arms, fighters, and intelligence in addition to political support both in international bodies and with world powers.

According to him, Egypt remained silent throughout the 14 months of the attack on Tripoli, silently pushing Haftar to continue its attack despite the deaths among civilians and the destruction of public and private infrastructure and facilities.

He added: "During the rotating presidency of the African Union in 2019, in the midst of Haftar's offensive against Tripoli, no political initiative was taken by al-Sissi to find a solution in Libya but, on the contrary, he put obstacles in the efforts of the African Union to find a way out in Libya."

Mr. Achour dismissed al-Sissi's argument on intervening against militias and terrorist groups saying Haftar's troops are composed mainly of militias including Salafist factions.

He also wondered why Sirte has now become a red line when in 2015 the Daech organization had installed an Islamic Emirate there and executed Copts without Egypt's reaction going beyond an airstrike on Derna. Meanwhile it was the GNA that drove the terrorist organization out of the city, paying a high price with thousands of dead and wounded.

In a post on his Facebook page, political analyst Ali Moujahid asked several questions to dismantle arguments advanced by the Egyptian president to seek a "casus belli" for an intervention in Libya.

First, he asked, who authorised the Egyptian President to define "red lines" in Libya unless he is working to perpetuate the division of Libya?

Second, he asked whether Libya, which is drowned in chaos, threatens Egyptian national security to talk about the UN Charter, "leaving terrorism behind in the Sinai that strikes the heart of Cairo and Alexandria and Egyptian cities and villages in general".

Third, he asked whether the Libyan Parliament met in a plenary session with a quorum in Cairo without the knowledge of Libyans and called for Egyptian military intervention.

Mr. Moujahid's fourth point is to refer to the meetings of the parties to the conflict in Abu Dhabi, Paris, Palermo, Moscow, and the Berlin Conference and asked President Sissi who refused to sign those peace agreements.

"Does President Sissi not know, then, who undermined the Ghadames Conference?" he asked.

His fifth question is "where was the initiative of the 'Cairo Declaration' which is being promoted by Sissi when rockets bombed Tripoli day and night'"?

Mr. Moujahid's next question is when al-Sissi talks about protecting Egypt's borders and securing its vital field, does he not know that the protection of Egypt and its vital field lies in the Nile Valley, especially in Abyssinia and Sinai? These are places where terrorism prevails, and also at the borders with the "Hebrew State" (Israel), which is preparing to swallow the West Bank and will only stop at the borders of Greater Israel, the Euphrates to the Nile as shown on the map drawn on the Israelis, and not in Libya

He also asked whether when President al-Sissi talks about Egyptian national security is an integral part of Arab national security, he doesn't realise that Arab national security is no longer an Egyptian matter since the late Egyptian President Anwar Sadat's visit to the Israeli Knesset, Camp David (agreements) and the exchange of ambassadors with the enemy.

For his part, the member of the Presidential Council of the GNA, Mohamed Ammari Zayed said: "There are no red lines within our borders and lands, and we reject any attempt to divide the Libyan people and geography, and we have the right to end rebellion against legitimate authority."

In a Facebook post in response to the Egyptian President's threats, he added: "We strongly reject what was stated in President al-Sissi's speech, and consider it a continuation of the war against the Libyan people and interference in their affairs, a serious threat to Libyan national security and North Africa, and a flagrant violation of international norms and charters."

Mr. Zayed stressed: "Libya is a sovereign state with a legitimate government, which is the Government of National Accord, and that no foreign party will have authority over its people, resources or capabilities, or undermine its unity and independence."

For its part, the Libyan Parliament sitting in Tripoli called on the government to be ready to respond to the "threats" of the Egyptian President, both "politically and practically".

It also called for this "aggression" to be taken seriously and for all available options to be explored "to respond at the appropriate time and place".

In a statement issued on Saturday, Parliament condemned in "the strongest possible terms" President al-Sissi's statement, which is "a direct threat to the use of force and explicit recognition of the aggression against Libya's security and sovereignty".

The president of the Libyan High State Council, Khaled al-Machri, on Saturday denounced, in reaction from Algeria, the statements of the Egyptian President saying they are "a violation of the country's sovereignty and blatant interference in its affairs".

The spokesman of the Libyan army loyal to the GNA, Colonel Mohamed Ganounou, called on "anyone who considers Libya a threat to his country to hold his tongue, his weapons, and his mercenaries".

In a tweet, Colonel Ganounou pointed out, a few hours after the Egyptian President's statement, that "7 neighbouring countries surround us ... Libya does not pose a threat to any of them ... and we do not threaten anyone's security ... even terrorism and terrorists have come to us and we have not exported them".

He added: "Anyone who sees us as a threat -- even if it is from the point of view of food and water -- should close its borders and hold back its weapons, armour, planes, mercenaries and its mouth."

FIN/ INFOSPLUSGABON/ZTR/GABON2020

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