String of stinging defeats for Haftar’s forces changing military, political picture in Libya

22 Mai 2020

Tripoli, Libya,  May 22 (Infosplusgabon) – The recent string of defeats handed the Libyan National Army (LNA) commanded by Marshal Khalifa Haftar in the long and bloody civil war in Libya is painting one clear picture: a change in the political and military balance of power.

The UN recognised Government of National Accord (GNA) has swept aside Haftar’s forces with lightning speed that has virtually forced the renegade General to finally begin to talk about pulling back 2-3 km from the frontlines in Tripoli in the name of Eid el-Fitr.

Haftar, who controls large swathes in eastern Libya, has brushed aside several peace talks, meetings and ceasefire proposals, as he pushed his military agenda, backed by United Arab Emirates, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Russia and France.

But now, his bloody venture to take the Libyan capital, Tripoli, since 4 April 2019, is going crumbling before his eyes, as Turkey’s intervention on the side of the GNA, giving it superior air advantage, has dramatically and radically halted that pursuit. Qatar and Italy also support the GNA.

Indeed, Haftar arrogantly launched the push to capture Tripoli while the UN secretary-general Antonio Guterres was in the city pushing for peace talks and warning that there is no military solution to the crisis.

In recent weeks, the fortunes have changed. On Thursday, Haftar’s forces lost Al-Assaba, adjacent to Gharyan, 80 km southeast of Tripoli, to GNA forces who took control of the region of Jendouba.

At the moment, Haftar’s only stronghold in western Libya is Tarhouna, 130 km south of Tripoli, but which is surrounded and could fall any time to GNA forces, who have been galvanised by the capture of the al-Wattiya air base, in the southwest, which was a strategic point in Haftar’s military offensive against Tripoli.

Slah Ahmed al-Fitouri, a Libyan political analyst, dismisses Haftar’s “withdrawal” from the frontlines because of Eid-el-Fitr as a pretext because the warlord has always violated the humanitarian truces by bombarding residential districts.

"At the same time that the coronavirus pandemic is spreading in the country, Haftar’s forces continue bombarding houses, hospitals and airports.”

These military defeats have had consequences for Haftar’s alliances: there is a split in the armed groups supporting the former leader Muammar Gaddafi regime. Some have decided to separate themselves from the command of the LNA, criticising Haftar for abandoning of positions.

They said the Marshal has never visited the frontlines in Tripoli during the 15 months of clashes.

Ahmed al-Hassi, a public administration executive in Tripoli, underlined that "these defeats have also had political consequences for Haftar who saw, for the first time, tribes allied to him take positions contradicting his instructions".

He said during Haftar’s announcement of the “mandate” he claimed he had received from the people to rule the country, he announced the abandonment of the Libyan political deal tabled by the Speaker of the House of Representatives, Aguila Saleh, to reform of the presidential council. With that position, several tribes rejected the dissolution of Parliament they considered as source of legitimacy.

"This disapproval brought the tribes to consider withdrawing their sons in the west of the country from the army of Marshal Haftar in his offensive against Tripoli and the western region," he said.

The former minister of Information in the ex-National Transitional Council (NTC) regime, Mahmud Shammam, predicts the strengthening of Russia role to tilt the political balance to Haftar since Moscow has come-back with force in Libya despite the harsh criticisms of Washington of its interference via the Wagner Group mercenaries fighting for Haftar.

He thinks that “Russia’s role will be played through the Syrian door”.

Shammam points to the arrival of Russian jets, but also the threat to use them, which explains the quick move of French president Emmanuel Macron to contact the White House to stop the escalation which minimises the French role and particularly centralises a major bilateral conflict between Turkey and Russia.

President Trump shared President Macron’s warning and this reached the Turkish and Russians leaders who tried to calm themselves down, he said.

Subsequently, the Russian and Turkish ministers of foreign affairs, Serguei Lavrov and Mevlut Cavusoglu respectively spoke on phone calling for the resumption of the peace process and the end of hostilities.

In February, the US president warned that the continuation of foreign interference in Libya will aggravate the situation and underlined during talks on phone with his Turkish counterpart Recep Erdogan that "the continuation of foreign interference in Libya will not but lead to a deterioration of the situation".

Actually, after all this military escalation and in light with the developments on the ground, things are moving towards political talks to find negotiated outcome.

Haftar appears to be softening his military position after these successive defeats, according to observers, who add that he won’t ignore a helping hand stretched by Russia to come back to the political scene.

The acting Special Representative of the UN Secretary-General in Libya, Stephanie Williams, during her recent briefing before the Security Council said that dialogue could resume, seeking the support of members countries.

According to her, the peace talks could resume within the military component on the basis of the draft ceasefire deal distributed to the members of the joint 5+5 military commission on 23 April in Geneva.

She said she had already received an answer from the GNA and is waiting for Haftar to engage for the meetings which could, this time, end with progress and concrete results.

The inter-Libyan peace talks could be held immediately with the nomination soon of a new UN envoy in Libya, in the person of Ghanaian diplomat and former foreign minister Hanna Tetteh, whose choice was unanimous within members of the Security Council.

FIN/ INFOSPLUSGABON/TYG/GABON2020

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