Coronavirus: UN think-tank estimates US$65 billion monthly loss from lockdowns in Africa

11 Mai 2020

Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, May 11 (Infosplusgabon) – One month full lockdown across Africa could cost the continent about 2.5 percent of its annual economic growth, equivalent to US$65.7 billion month, the Addis Ababa-based UN Economic Commission for Africa, said on Sunday.

The ECA said the monthly loss from the complete economic lockdown in 42 countries would be separate from additional losses from the wider external impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19) on Africa of lower commodity prices and investment flows.

ECA released a new report proposing to African nations various coronavirus disease exit strategies following the imposition of lockdowns that helped suppress the virus but with devastating economic consequences.

At least 42 African countries have applied partial or full lockdowns in their quest to curtail the pandemic.

In the new report titled," COVID-19: Lockdown exit strategies for Africa," the ECA proposes seven exit strategies that provide sustainable, albeit reduced, economic activity.

The report sets out some of the exit strategies being proposed and tried around the world and outlines the risks involved for African countries. The lockdowns came with serious challenges for Africa’s economies.

They include a drop in demand for products and services; lack of operational cash flow and the reduction of opportunities to meet new customers.

During the lockdowns, businesses were closed, issues with changing business strategies and offering alternative products and services were common.

Among the most sensitive issues facing policymakers is the impact of COVID-19 lockdowns on food security.

The seven lockdown exit strategies being proposed by the ECA are identified from proposals and trials around the world.

They are assessed with respect to the extent to which each strategy minimises uncertainty over fatalities.

In most cases, countries are applying a combination of several strategies such as testing, contact tracing and gradual segmented reopening.

They are improving testing; lockdown until preventive or curative medicines are developed; contact tracing and mass testing; immunity permits; gradual segmented reopening; adaptive triggering; and mitigation.

Under adaptive triggering nations can ease lockdown once infections decline and re-impose if they begin to rise above intensive-care capacity.

These would require regular shutdowns lasting two-thirds of the year, making little difference to permanent lockdown from an economic perspective.

African healthcare capacity is limited meaning capacity would quickly be exceeded, potentially resulting in fatalities.

Firms surveyed by the ECA reported to be operating at only 43 per cent; 70 per cent of slum dwellers report that they are missing meals or eating less as a result of COVID-19.

Lockdowns, the report notes, forestall severe vulnerabilities, and that testing, contact tracing and easing restrictions may be possible for countries with sufficient public health systems.

Gradual segmented reopening may be needed in countries where containment has failed with further measures to suppress the spread of the disease being required where the virus is still spreading, notes the report.

The spread of the virus is still accelerating in many African countries on average at 30 percent every week.

Active learning and data collection can help policymakers ascertain risks across the breadth of policy unknowns as they consider recommendations to ease lockdowns and move towards a “new normal”.

The report urges African nations to take advantage of being behind the curve.

This may be an opportunity to learn from the experiences of other regions and their experiments in reopening; and to use the “extra time” afforded by the lockdowns to rapidly put in place testing, treatment systems, preventive measures, and carefully design lockdown exit strategies in collaboration with communities and vulnerable groups.

FIN/ INFOSPLUSGABON/IOP/GABON2020

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